Is Dirk Nowitzki #1 worth grading?

Basketball · Basketball Cards 2017 Panini Select · full price guide →

Worth grading — even a PSA 9 beats raw

A Grade 9.5 Dirk Nowitzki #1 sells for $44.00 against $1.60 raw: a $42.40 spread, 28× the ungraded price. Even a PSA 9 ($39.77) clears the raw price after an economy-tier ~$25 fee, so a near-miss still comes out ahead. Centering is the usual reason a clean copy misses the 10 — measure it before you submit.

Raw (NM): $1.60
Grade 9.5: $44.00
PSA 9: $39.77
Gem premium: 28×
As of: Sep 4, 2026

Break-even by outcome and fee

Dirk Nowitzki #1: net result of grading versus selling raw, by outcome and fee tier
If it comes back…	Sells for	Economy / bulk (~$25.00)	Standard (~$50.00)	Express (~$150)
Gem — Grade 9.5	$44.00	+$17.40	−$7.60	−$108
PSA 9	$39.77	+$13.17	−$11.83	−$112

Net = sale price − $1.60 raw value − fee. Fee tiers are illustrative; plug your grader's current price into the calculator below.

Expected value — how often does it need to gem?

Dirk Nowitzki #1: expected value of submitting by gem probability
Chance it gems	Expected sale	Expected net (standard fee)
25%	$40.83	−$10.77
50%	$41.89	−$9.71
75%	$42.94	−$8.66

At the standard fee this submission does not break even at any realistic gem rate unless the miss lands above the 9 price.

Full grade ladder

Raw conditions & history →

Dirk Nowitzki #1 graded prices by company and grade
Grade	Graded
9.5	$44.00
9	$39.77

Run your own numbers

Should I pay this?

Asking priceGrading fee

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