Start with expected value
The grading decision is purely a math problem. You’re paying a fixed cost (the grading fee + shipping + insurance) to upgrade an uncertain outcome (the grade you actually get back).
The decision is positive-EV when:
P(10) × (10-price − raw-price) > cost × certainty-factor
In plain English: only grade if the probability you hit a 10 times the upside of that 10 over the raw card exceeds the all-in cost of submission.
The decision table
For most modern Pokemon and sports cards, here’s the fast version once you have a centering measurement and a decent look at the corners/edges:
| Centering | Condition | Decision | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50/50 to 55/45 | Mint corners + clean surface | SEND | Strong 10 candidate at any grader. |
| 55/45 to 60/40 | Mint corners + clean surface | SEND | Solid 9 floor; 10 is possible depending on grader. |
| 60/40 to 65/35 | Mint corners + clean surface | BORDERLINE | Cap is PSA 9; consider TAG for a 9.5 shot on vintage. |
| 65/35 or worse | Any | SKIP | Centering caps you at 8 or below. Sell raw. |
| Any | Visible corner wear / edge whitening | SKIP | Even perfect centering caps at 7-8 with visible wear. |
Pick the right grader
Once you’ve decided a card is worth grading, match the grader to the card:
- PSA: default for modern Pokemon, vintage Pokemon, sports cards. Premium on 10s. Slowest turnaround.
- BGS: when you want subgrades on the slab — especially valuable if you’re aiming for Black Label or reselling and want to prove the 10 has 10 corners + 10 surface.
- CGC: faster than PSA with similar tolerances. Good for less-popular sets where the PSA 10 premium isn’t as strong.
- TAG: best for vintage cards where centering is borderline; AI grading is more forgiving on era-specific print drift. Also: TAG publishes the actual measurements, so resale buyers can verify your grade.