Is Shohei Ohtani [Green Lava] #1 worth grading?

Baseball · Baseball Cards 2025 Topps Chrome · full price guide →

Grading rarely pays for this card

Grade 9.5 copies of Shohei Ohtani [Green Lava] #1 sell for $102, only $0.00 above the $170 raw price — less than an economy-tier grading fee. A PSA 9 ($93.09) sells for less than raw, so anything short of a 10 loses money. Keep it raw unless you are grading for the slab itself.

Raw (NM): $170
Grade 9.5: $102
PSA 9: $93.09
Gem premium: 0.6×
As of: Sep 2, 2026

Break-even by outcome and fee

Shohei Ohtani [Green Lava] #1: net result of grading versus selling raw, by outcome and fee tier
If it comes back…	Sells for	Economy / bulk (~$25.00)	Standard (~$50.00)	Express (~$150)
Gem — Grade 9.5	$102	−$93.06	−$118	−$218
PSA 9	$93.09	−$102	−$127	−$227

Net = sale price − $170 raw value − fee. Fee tiers are illustrative; plug your grader's current price into the calculator below.

Expected value — how often does it need to gem?

Shohei Ohtani [Green Lava] #1: expected value of submitting by gem probability
Chance it gems	Expected sale	Expected net (standard fee)
25%	$95.32	−$125
50%	$97.55	−$123
75%	$99.77	−$120

At the standard fee this submission does not break even at any realistic gem rate unless the miss lands above the 9 price.

Full grade ladder

Raw conditions & history →

Shohei Ohtani [Green Lava] #1 graded prices by company and grade
Grade	Graded
9.5	$102
9	$93.09

Run your own numbers

Should I pay this?

Asking priceGrading fee

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